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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 240247

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0235 UTC Wed Aug 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.


Low pressure at 1007 mb is analyzed near 14.5N106W moving west-
northwest around 20 kt. A tropical wave extends from Mexico near
20N104.5W through the low to 10N106W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm of the center, except within 210 nm in
the northeast quadrant. Currently winds are likely 20 kt or less,
but are forecast to increase to fresh to strong within the next 24
hours. Seas are already up to 8 ft in mixed southerly swell, and
are forecast to build to 8 to 11 ft by 48 hours. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.


A tropical wave is along 97W/98W north of 09N moving west at 15
to 20 kt. Limited convection is present with this wave in the
northeast Pacific. This tropical wave is forecast to merge with
the tropical wave and area of low pressure to the west near
14.5N106W in the next few days.

A tropical wave is along 124W from 07N to 15N moving west at
around 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is disorganized and is
described in the monsoon trough section below.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 08N96W to low
pressure near 14.5N106W to low pressure near 11.5N118W to 11N133W.
The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 11N133W to
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 06N between
86W to 88W, within 180 nm north of the axis between 100W and 103W,
and also from 09N to 11N between 121W and 125W.

Scattered moderate convection is also found from 18N to 20N east
of 107W. This convection has formed over land, likely enhanced by
the northern end of a tropical wave that is discussed above.



Ridging extends from 1021 mb high pressure near 32N128W through
29N120W to 22N110W. This ridging will change little through the
upcoming weekend with mainly light to moderate northerly flow
prevailing outside of the Gulf of California.

In the Gulf of California, expect mainly light to moderate
southerly flow, except occasionally to fresh in the northern Gulf
where the pressure gradient will be slightly tighter.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will continue to
pulse to fresh to near gale force during the next few days due to
a locally tight pressure gradient combined with nocturnal drainage
flow, with the strongest winds expected during the late night into
the early morning hours. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10 ft during
the strongest winds. The gradient will weaken slightly this weekend
allowing for northerly winds to pulse to only fresh levels.


In the Gulf of Papagayo, the latest model guidance indicates
easterly offshore winds pulsing to fresh levels during the
overnight and early morning hours through early Wednesday, which
will build seas to 7 ft.

Otherwise, expect light to moderate winds elsewhere. Combined
seas will be 4 to 6 ft through the upcoming weekend.


The post-tropical remnant low of Kay is analyzed near 23.5N121.5W
at 1008 mb. No deep convection is present with the low. The
remnant low will continue to the northwest for the remainder of this
evening, and then more west-northwest before dissipating tomorrow.
A small area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft can
be found within 150 nm in the northwest semicircle, however,
these conditions will diminish and subside tomorrow as the low

Low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough is analyzed near
11.5N118W at 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm in the east semicircle and 180 nm in the west semicircle. A
large area of fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow is supporting
seas of 8 to 9 ft within 420 nm in the southeast semicircle of the
low. Model guidance mainly keeps the low weak if not even slightly
weaker during the next couple of days, then the low may deepen late
in the week into the upcoming weekend.