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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240253
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Newly upgraded Hurricane Georgette is centered at 14.2N 123.1W
at 0300 UTC, or about 915 nm west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-
northwest or 280 degrees at 8 kt. The maximum sustained winds
have increased slightly to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, making
Georgette the fourth hurricane this season across the tropical
northeast Pacific. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
Satellite imagery this evening continues to show a tight
circular pattern of convection surrounding Georgette's center.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center, while scattered moderate is
elsewhere within 75 nm northwest and 90 nm across southeast
semicircles. Georgette is expected to continue moving west-
northwest and strengthen modestly during the next 24 hours.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 19.6N 111.1W at 0300 UTC, or
about 210 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California. Frank is moving west-northwest, or 305 degrees at 7
kt. The maximum sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt
and estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Frank
continues to move under northeasterly upper wind shear,
displacing much of the deep convection to the south of the
center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted within 90 nm north and 150 nm south of the center, with
bands of moderate to strong elsewhere within 240 nm across the
southeast quadrant. Frank is expected to continue moving
northwest during the next couple of days and remain under the
influence of this northeast upper level wind shear. This will
prevent Frank from further intensification, and it is not
expected to change much in intensity for the next 36 hours.
Large S to SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican
coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California
Sur during the next couple of days and shift northward into
central portions of the baja peninsula Monday. This will
generate rough and dangerous surf along the local coastlines.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave north of 13N near 98W has exited the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region and is moving into southwestern Mexico and
the adjacent coastal waters. The wave is expected to enhance
overnight convection off the coast of Mexico north of 12N
between 97W and 105W.  

A second tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras
southward to the Pacific waters along 87W. This wave will shift
west off of Central America and the adjacent near and offshore
coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn
active convection.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 07N74W to
09N95W to 11.5N108W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 08N132W to
07N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 240 nm n and 180 nm s of the trough
between 80W and 102W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm north and 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 122W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

The center of Frank has moved across the Revillagigedo Islands
in the past few hours, and will exit the islands during the next
4-6 hours. Frank continues to generate large southeast swell
that has begun to reach the southern entrance of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes, producing
offshore seas of 6 to 9 ft. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the
Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early
Monday, outside of the main storm environment of Frank. This
will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the
offshore waters, and large and powerful surf conditions along
exposed coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and
very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines
throughout the weekend. As Franks moves northwestward Monday and
Tuesday, it will encounter cooler waters temperatures and begin
to weaken out over the open Pacific.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N130W
to offshore of Baja California Sur along 118W. Moderate
southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California
between the ridge and resident troughing meandering across the
peninsula. These southerly winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt
over the far northern portions of the Gulf of California tonight
as high pressure builds to the northwest. The building high
pressure will also support strong northerly winds offshore of
California tonight through Sunday, allowing northerly swell to
raise seas to 8 ft or higher and propagate southward to 26N by
Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will develop in the offshore
waters off Baja California Norte Sunday into early next week in
mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther west, Georgette is moving to the west of the area. The
associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater are presently
shifting west of 120W.

West of 120W:

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 24N140W at 0300
UTC moving westward at near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows a low
level cloud swirl surrounding the low with no significant
convection. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the
weekend as Estelle continues to weaken. This remnant low
continues to produce a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This
has resulted in a light wind flow persisting over the deep
tropics. Fresh northerly wind and shorter period swell of 7 to 9
ft will push south of 32N to 26N between 119W and 130W Sunday
until early next week.

$$
Stripling