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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 04N81W TO 05N86W. ITCZ FROM 05N86W 
TO 07N105W TO 06N112W BEYOND 05N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N 
TO 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...AND FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 107W 
AND 111W. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 8N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 131W/132W THROUGH 32N TO 12N. A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT...THAT IS PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... 
EXTENDS FROM THE SONORA COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 
28N110W...ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 26N112W IN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...TO 23N120W...AND DISSIPATING TO 23N127W. THE FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY SATURDAY. SHORT PERIOD N SWELL 
IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 25N WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 110W WESTWARD. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS TO 
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THAT IS 
TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE 
FORCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NEAR 30N140W. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOCAL DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS ARE ENHANCING GAP WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. ASCAT PASSES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN SHOWING AT LEAST 
25 KNOT WINDS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO GENERATE 
A PLUME OF 8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS FOR TODAY...WITH SWELLS OF 8 FEET 
TO 9 FEET REACHING TO 101W ON SATURDAY. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE 
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...IN ORDER TO 
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS 
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW 
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN 
ORDER TO INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ANY MORE. NORMAL 
MODERATE TO FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW PERSISTS. AN AREA OF NORTHEAST 
SWELL...THAT WAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY...IS 
LOCATED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT STRONG 
PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE ON 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE 
PEAK WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 21:51:41 UTC