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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N95W to a 
1008 mb low near 13N101W to 10N110W to 10N120W to 09N130W. The
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N130W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 
09N between 79W and 84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 06N to 10N between 88W and 92W, and also
within 180 nm south of the axis between 110W and 114W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between
115W and 118W.

In addition, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center in the southeast quadrant of the low.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge protrudes east-southeastward across
these waters from well to the northwest of the area. The
associated gradient is supporting generally moderate northwest
winds across the Baja California Peninsula waters. Light to 
gentle northwest to north winds are noted elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters to Acapulco. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft 
range in mixed southwest and northwest swell across these 
waters, except across the Michoacan through Chiapas offshore 
waters where winds and seas are higher. This is due to 1008 mb 
low pressure located near 13N101W. Moderate to fresh south to 
southwest, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range are occurring on 
the southeast side of the low with 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere 
across the two offshore zones. The low is forecast to gradually 
dissipate through the next 18 hours or so, allowing for 
associated winds and seas to subside. The pressure gradient is\
forecast to tighten slightly to the north of 20N through Friday 
as the ridge slightly builds into the region, with winds and 
seas increasing slightly across those areas. Gentle to moderate 
SE winds occurring elsewhere between Tehuantepec and offshore of 
Acapulco will gradually weaken and veer southwest to west through
Friday.

In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are expected through the day except in the northern Gulf, with 
seas of 2 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Low pressure just to the north of the area over SW Arizona
will linger through the end of the week. A trough extending 
south to southwest from the low to Baja California Norte will 
linger as well. Fresh to nearly gale force southwest to west
winds have developed to the southeast side of the trough, and 
will persist through Friday night. The winds are enhanced through
the gaps in the higher terrain of Baja. Seas are forecast to 
build to 6 to 8 ft late tonight to the southeast of the trough.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle southwest to west winds prevail between the Papagayo 
region and Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. 
Expect NW to W monsoonal winds to spread across the coastal 
waters through Friday as a tropical wave moves across the area 
through Friday. Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh 
levels near the Gulf of Papagayo by Saturday night, behind the 
wave, and again on Sunday night. Moderate SW winds will continue 
to the S of 09N through Thursday night. A few pulses of SW swell 
are forecast to propagate across the area through the next 
several days, occasionally building seas to 7 ft. Otherwise, 
little change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend and 
early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends from 28N140W southeastward through 22N130W
to 23N122W. The ridge is slowly shifting southeastward as a weak
trough from 30N126W to 25N135W, and a cold front along and to
the north of 30N are pushing southward. Moderate northerly winds
follow the trough and front in the northern waters, with long 
period north swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft across the area 
from 29N to 32N between 126W and 132W this afternoon into this 
evening, before subsiding to less than 8 ft Friday evening. 
Elsewhere N of the deep tropics, the weak ridge will maintain 
moderate trade winds south of 18N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft 
expected through Friday. Slightly stronger high pressure to the 
northwest of the area will build southward by the end of the 
weekend and into early next week, supporting increasing trades to
moderate to fresh levels and resultant seas of 5 to 8 ft across 
the waters north of the convergence zone.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-May-2017 22:04:51 UTC