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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN   
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED 
TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE 
NOW INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 45-50 KT WINDS TO 
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY 
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO 
20 KT OR LESS BY SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 24-
25 FT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE 
WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND 
APPROACH THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N96W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 10N108W TO 11N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS 
W OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
CONTINUES N OF 27N WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 
11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF FONSECA...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY THU... 
THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AND 
MORNING BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. 
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU THROUGH FRI. NW 
SWELL TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS THROUGH THU.

1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N124W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 15N119W TO 11N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE 
WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL 
NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 120W.

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 21:50:24 UTC