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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM MARIE CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 128.9W AT 28/1500 UTC 
OR 752 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 13 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE E AND S QUADRANTS. 
MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NW WHILE SLOWING ITS 
FORWARD MOVEMENT. MARIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL 
TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON  
IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE 
CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING SURF...VERY STRONG RIP 
CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 14N94W TO 12N109W      
THEN RESUMES FROM 14N129W TO 11N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E 
OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60-120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 05N81W TO 06N85W... 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 08N90W TO 08N98W...WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 100W...AND FROM 10N TO 
13N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...    

W OF 110W...REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL HAVE 
MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT 
OR GREATER SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH TIME. 

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 
41N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N114W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL 
DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATER 
TODAY WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-NW WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. 
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 18N140W TO 15N137W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. NO OTHER 
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 15:07:42 UTC