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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1940 UTC Tue Jun 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

At 2100 UTC, Hurricane Dora is downgraded to a Tropical Storm as
it passes north of Socorro Island. At this time, Dora is centered
near 19.6N 111.4W moving west-northwest or 290 degrees at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds have diminished to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. The convection 
associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now 
exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite
imagery shows an area of scattered to numerous moderate convection
within 60 nm of the eastern semicircle, with scattered moderate 
convection noted within 30 nm of the west semicircle. Dora is 
starting to weaken as it moves into a hostile environment of 
cooler ocean temperatures. It is expected to rapidly weaken as it
tracks west-northwest through Wednesday, becoming a remnant low 
by Wednesday night. Swells generated by Dora will continue to 
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico through 
Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of the southern 
Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days. These 
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 07N95W to 
11N105W to 09N115W to 10N125W to 09N128W. The ITCZ axis continues 
from 09N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 10N between 79W and 110W. Similar convection is noted 
from 09N to 11N between 110W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Outside of the influence of Dora, gentle to moderate winds prevail
in the waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds are
off the coast of SW Mexico and across the Gulf of California. 
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 
Little change is expected during the next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across most of the
region, except for southerly winds between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Long period SW swell propagating into the 
region will build seas of 9-10 ft tonight and Wednesday, with 
the exception of the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure located north of area extends a ridge across the
waters north of the convergence zone and west of 120W. The most 
recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds from 
10N to 20N between 120W and 130W, with gentle to moderate winds 
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are generally 4-7 ft. Winds and seas 
are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the 
remainder of the week, with the exception of the south waters.
Cross equatorial long period SW swell will continue to propagate
across the south waters E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast 
zones between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and the waters
south of a line from 07N92W to 05N110W to 00S120W by Wednesday 
afternoon, and south of a line from 08S92W to 08N110W to 07N120W 
to 00N125W by Thursday afternoon. Expect building seas of 8-10 
ft with this swell event. The highest seas will remain south of 
the Equator.

$$ 
GR

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jun-2017 21:22:00 UTC