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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1005 UTC FRI FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...
WITH SEAS UP TO 15-17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
LATE MON MORNING. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL
SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE NARROW BAND OF
GALE CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG FLOW...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE UP TO
14 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GALE AREA. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO DIMINISH
TO 15-20 KT ON SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25
KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 07N117W TO
04N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO
06N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND
113W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 29N128W TO
27N120W TO 19N111W...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
30N136W TO 27N140W. LIGHT WINDS COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF
110W...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES S OF 20N W OF 110W.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY INCREASING
THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND.
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS A RESULT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. 

MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO TROUGHS N
OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAYBE AN
ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE WITH A
TROUGH NEAR OR ALONG 126W BY SAT NIGHT...WHILE GEFS 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT. SREF PACIFIC 34 KT
PROBABILITIES ARE 10-15 PERCENT. FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS CONDITIONS PROGRESS.

LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE WATERS W
OF 123W WITH SEAS UP TO 18 FT NEAR 30N140W. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE E-SE...REACHING THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS MORNING AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 20-23 SECONDS RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SWELL WILL REACH ALL THE WAY TO 110W BY SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR
CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS SETUP WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING TO 30 KT NEAR OR JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT ACROSS
THIS AREA AS A RESULT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MAINLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 1-3 FT
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE.

$$
LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Feb-2016 09:57:05 UTC