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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
008 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is near 16.2N 125.3W at 20/0300 UTC, 
moving W, or 280 degrees, at 15 kt, with estimated minimum 
central pressure of 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt 
with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently 
observed within 90 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles 
of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 123W and 127W. Kenneth is
forecast to reach hurricane intensity by Sun morning. Refer to 
National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS 
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional 
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W north of 09N, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
was noted from 08N to 10N between 101W and 107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 09N97W to 
09N104W to 08N116W, where it loses identity. It resumes from 
13N127W to 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection was noted from 07N to 12N east of 87W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 11N 
between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California 
Peninsula and Gulf of California through the middle of next week 
with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough 
over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A surface ridge 
extends across the western waters. This synoptic setup will 
result in a moderate NW breeze through the middle of next week 
across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except 
becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the
Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas forecast 
throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will 
persist across the Gulf of California through early next week, 
except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will surround the low 
pressure center that will develop intermittently over the 
Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight 
and then a brief strong surge is expected late Sun night with 
seas building briefly to 8 ft around sunrise on Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through 
early next week.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N 
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 41N137W extends a ridge 
southeast to near 22N113W. Outside the influence of Tropical 
Storm Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is 
forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Aug-2017 02:33:20 UTC