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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112209 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Dec 11 2017

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A very tight pressure gradient
is sustained across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec by 1031 mb high 
pressure centered just west of Tampico Mexico. This tight 
pressure gradient will maintain strong gale force winds in the 
range of 30-40 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec until early on 
Tuesday, then diminish to minimal gale force by early on 
Wednesday. Seas are in the 12-18 ft range with these strong gale 
force, and will subside to 10-15 kt early in Tuesday and remain 
near those values through Wednesday. Fresh to strong NE-E winds 
extend downstream from the gulf to near 10N and 100W, where seas 
are in the 9-14 ft range primarily due to a NE swell. A large 
area of NE-E 15-20 kt winds is confined from 02N-15N between 90W-
110W, with seas of 8-12 ft in mixed NE and SW swell. This area 
is forecast to gradually shrink in coverage through Thursday.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from NW Colombia to 08N78W to 
07N84W to 05N90W where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
begins and continues to 06N100W to 08N110W to 12N119W where it 
is bisected by a trough that is along a position from 20N114W to
10N113W. The ITCZ resumes at 10N124W to 10N132W to beyond the 
area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within
60 nm of the axis between 104W and 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please see Special Features section above 
for details on the ongoing gale event. 

A weaker pressure gradient than the past few days is presently 
over the SW U.S. This is maintaining generally gentle to 
moderate NW winds across the gulf. The gradient will between 
very strong high pressure that builds southward over the western 
U.S. and the thermal troughing will support the NW winds to 
increase over the northern portion of the gulf beginning on 
Tuesday, with winds there reaching the fresh category. These 
winds then increase further to the strong category on Wednesday 
and through Wednesday evening. Mainly moderate NW-N winds over 
the offshore Pacific waters along with seas of 4-6 ft will 
change little through Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Gulf of Papagayo: The tight pressure gradient over southeastern 
Mexico has slackened just enough to allow for the recent gale 
force NE winds that were present across the Gulf of Papagayo to 
diminish to strong to near gale force winds this morning. N-NE 
winds of 20-25 kt are elsewhere N of 08N between 85W-86W. Model 
guidance indicates that these winds will change little through 
Wednesday with seas in the range of 8-10 ft. These seas will 
propagate to the SW away from the fetch area and reach to near 
08N and 98W on Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front is across the NW corner of the 
area from 30N136W to 28N140W. The main issue over the western 
half of the area is the long period NW swell that is located
to the W of a line from 32N128W to 21N132W to 14N128W to 09N140W.
The swell is inducing seas of 8-12 ft, with the highest of these
seas N of 22N. The swell will gradually decay through Thursday,
at which time it is forecast to be the W of a line from 32N134W
to 23N140W along with seas of 8-11 ft.

The pressure difference between a trough roughly along a position
from 20N114W to 10N113W and the high pressure over the northern
and central waters is forecast to result in strong NE to E winds
beginning late tonight from 13N-18N, and to the W of 128W along 
with seas of about 8-10 ft. This area of strong winds will 
diminish on Tuesday, with winds diminishing to 15-20 kt.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Dec-2017 22:09:36 UTC