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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC THU FEB 11 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 20 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL IMMEDIATELY TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG GALE FORCE
BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING...
WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUN AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE LATE SUN NIGHT.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT...MERGING WITH
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-103W TONIGHT AND THU AND GAIN ON SUN...WITH SEAS
 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON FRI. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS
FAR SW AS 07N96W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 15 FT
NEAR 09N88W ON THU. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THU NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ONLY 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 03N89W AND
EXTENDS NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N110W THEN TURNS SW
TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N86W TO 07N114W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE
FROM 25N120W TO 17N102W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 108-
120W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED
SEAS OF 7-10 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT 28N102W ON FRI AND REACH THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT...AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA ON SAT...AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-
108W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STRONG GALE EVENT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF ABOUT 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT
10 FT NEAR 06N81W. 

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 130W
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE W AGAIN LATE THU AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATES SE ACROSS THE
TROPICS. A SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING NEAR 31N127W CONTINUES TO
BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WASHING OUT FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W AND A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 30N143W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON FRI AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W ON THU
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE ON FRI.

$$
NELSON