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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230909
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
447 UTC Fri Jun 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1009 mb low pressure
near 13N96W to 11N101W to 10N121W. The ITCZ extends from 10N121W
to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 90W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted in association with this
feature. Latest scatterometer data suggest moderate to fresh
winds surround the low. The low will drift west-northwestward
south of the coast of southern Mexico the next couple of days.
This feature will be one to watch with interest as there is the
potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Elsewhere latest scatterometer data indicates light to gentle
winds prevail over the majority of the forecast area. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range off the coast of Baja California Norte, 1-3 ft
over the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft over the remainder of the
forecast area. Seas west of Baja California Norte will subside 
below 8 ft today. High pressure building west of the area will 
support moderate to occasionally fresh northwest winds along the 
coast of Baja California through Sunday with building seas of 5 
to 7 ft seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are expected across
most of the region during the forecast period, with the
exception of mainly S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands. Seas will subside to 4-5 ft during the upcoming 
weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure prevails over the northern waters. Latest
ASCAT data depicts gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the
ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft range south of 20N, and 8-12 ft
north of 20N in northerly swell. Seas will gradually subside 
through the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL