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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 231629

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The center of Tropical Depression Kay is near 22.7N 120.1W at
1500 UTC, moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 7 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The
latest satellite imagery shows that Kay has become a low level
cloud swirl devoid of deep convection. Deep layered easterly
winds have stretched the circulation east to west in the low to
middle levels. Kay will be moving over cooler waters in the next
few days, and has entered a drier more stable middle to upper
level environment, and is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical
remnant this afternoon or evening, and then to dissipate by
Thursday. Please see the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC, and the latest public
advisory MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC, for more details.

A tropical wave is along about 101W moving westward 10 to 15
knots. A broad low level wind surge spilling out of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec has aided in producing a large zone of convergence
that has initiated scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection from 12.5N to 17N between 99W and 106W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen elsewhere from 10N to 16N
between 95W and 110W. Global models suggest suggest that
environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development
of this system as it continues moving westward. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours, and a high change through 5 days.


.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W S OF 14N...Scattered moderate
to strong convection noted within 180 nm either side of monsoon
trough between 117W and 124W. Low pressure near 10.5N116W 1008
mb is indicated by recent scatterometer data along the monsoon
trough behind the wave axis. Scattered moderate to strong
convection noted within 90 nm of low center except 45 nm across
NW quadrant. The wave will continue moving westward with global
models suggesting improved organization in a few days.


Monsoon trough extends from low pres near 09N74.5W TO 07N82W
TO09N100W TO 11.5N108W TO low pres near 10.5N116W TO 09.5N124W
TO 12.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
noted within 180 NM of trough between 110W AND 136W. 



Tropical Depression Kay has moved west of the forecast area.
The thermal trough continues to meander across the Baja
California peninsula yielding light to moderate northwest winds
across the Pacific waters of the peninsula, while light
andvariable winds prevail inside the Gulf of California and
extend to near Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet
will subside gradually during the next few days.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: The tight gradient behind the tropical
wave along 101W in combination with nocturnal drainage flow into
the Gulf has produced a plume of north to northeast winds of 20
to 25 knots across the Gulf with seas 6-8 ft this morning. This
plume of fresh winds also extends farther downwind and across
the northern portions of the tropical wave, where seas are
running 6-8 ft also. The fresh to strong east to southeast winds
occurring between Puerto Angel and Acapulco this morning are
expected to diminish this evening and tonight as the tropical
wave shifts west of the area. However, look for fresh northeast
winds across the Caribbean to continue to drive northerly winds
through the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next few days, and
maximizing at 25 to possibly 30 kt each night. 


Winds will pulse into the Gulf of Papagayo during the next few
nights...peaking 20-25 kt during the late night and early
morning hours and weakening to 15-20 kt during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere, Light to moderate
winds will prevail on either side of the monsoon trough with
seas in the 4 to 6 foot range. 


Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 31N128W. The
resulting weak pressure gradient is maintaining generally light
to gentle winds to the west of Kay, with sea heights in the
range of 4 to 6 feet. South of 20N and west of Kay, the
modestpressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh
easttonortheast trades to the north of the monsoon trough.
These winds will increase Wed through Thu as the tropical
wavealong 120W moves into the area and tightens the pres
gradient, and seas build 6-9 ft.