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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 84W north of 05N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are noted from 07N to 09N within 120 nm of the
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to low pressure near
10N93W 1011 mb to 09N100W to 09N105W to 13N115W to low pressure
near 11N121W 1011 mb to 09N127W. The ITCZ axis extends from
09N127W to 09N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 13N between 100W
and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 04N to
07N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the axis between 84W-86W,
and within 60 nm north of the axis between 123W-124W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 
95W-98W...and also between 107W-108.5W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

High pressure covers the area to the 15N west of 112W with a
ridge axis roughly along 32N133W to 26N127W to near 24N116W.
The very tight pressure gradient from the past few days that
was just north of the northeastern portion of the are has 
weaken. N swell that has been ushered into the north-central 
waters from this gradient are gradually subsiding north of 
27N between 122W-128W with resultant seas of 8 feet. The
swell energy is expected to dissipate by Monday afternoon,
with seas subsiding to 6-7 feet there.

Ascat data from this afternoon depicted generally gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds north of the convergence zone
west of 114W, and light to variable winds east of 114W. Light to
moderate southerly winds were indicated south of the monsoon and
ITCZ zones.                       

A 1011 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 12N121W. Latest
satellite imagery shows enhanced convection over and near the
low. The convection is characterized as scattered moderate to
isolated strong type within 60 nm of the low in the northwest
quadrant, and scattered moderate type within 60 nm of the low in
the northeast quadrant. The low is forecast to move northeast
through Monday morning, then southeast thereafter while
weakening. The low will be within a large area of southern
hemespheric south to southwest swell.

$$
Aguirre