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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 22.7N 115.2W AT 0300 UTC SEP 5 MOVING 
N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT GUSTS 50 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. KEVIN 
CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A 
PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR...LOWER 
SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SATURDAY AND FURTHER 
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10.5N105.5W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 30 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES AND STRING WINDS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE 
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N97W TO 10N105W TO 
13N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH 
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY W OF LINE 30N135W TO 13N138W. 
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL START TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL 
COVER THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 138W. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N145W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 28N118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE 
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR 
GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
AL


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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 02:45:38 UTC