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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 09N79W to a 1009 mb low
at 14N94W to 13.5N103.5W to 09N111W to 09N120W. ITCZ axis extends
from 09N120W to 09N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
within 180 nm south of the axis between 92W and 97W, and also
between 98W and 105.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm south and 60 nm north of axis between
125W and 132W, and also within 60 nm south of axis west of 138W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the 
axis between 110W and 116W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Rather weak high pressure is present over the area, with the 
associated gradient supporting generally moderate northwest
winds prevailing across the Baja California Peninsula waters.
Light to gentle NW to N winds are noted elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in mixed
SW and NW swell across the open waters. The pressure gradient 
will tighten somewhat N of 20N through Friday as the ridge builds
modestly into the region, with winds and seas increasing 
slightly. 

In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are expected through Thursday except in the northern Gulf, with 
seas of 2 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Low pressure will deepen just to the north of the area 
over SW Arizona tonight through the end of the week. A trough 
will extend from the low across the northern Gulf to Baja 
California Norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop to
the southeast of the trough tonight, and then again on Thursday 
night as winds become enhanced through the gaps in the higher 
terrain of Baja. Seas are expected to build to around or to 8 ft 
each night during the nocturnal wind max.

S of 16N including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, broad and ill-defined 
low pressure has persisted across the offshore waters SW of 
Tehuantepec the past few days, and has gradually drifted to the W
of 100W. Latest visible satellite imagery shows the presence of 
weak low pressure to the south-southeast of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec near 14N94W. The low is on the northeast edge of
a large cluster of deep convection described above under 
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. This low is expected to remain about 
stationary through the next 24 hours, and perhaps dissipate 
thereafter. Gentle to moderate SE winds occurring between 
Tehuantepec and offshore of Acapulco will gradually weaken and 
veer SW to W through Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail between the Papagayo 
region and Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. 
Expect these conditions to continue through this evening before 
gentle to moderate SW to W monsoonal winds spread N of 09N and 
into the coastal waters through Friday. Nocturnal offshore winds
will pulse to fresh levels near the Gulf of Papagayo by Saturday
night, and again on Sunday night. Moderate SW winds will continue
to the south of 09N through Thursday night. Seas there will 
subside in SW swell through this evening. A new pulse of SW 
swell is progged to arrive Thursday through late Friday. 
Otherwise, little change is anticipated through the upcoming 
weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends from 32N136W southeastward to near 17N113W.
The ridge will change little through Thursday as weak cold front
moves across the northeast portion of the area, then build some 
southeastward Friday through Saturday once the front the exits 
the area. A set of long period NW swell producing seas of 8 to 9
ft is forecast to approach the from 31N to 32N between 125W and 
135W on Thursday, before subsiding to Friday. Elsewhere N of the
convergence zone, the weak ridge will maintain moderate trade 
winds S of 18N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft expected.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-May-2017 22:03:30 UTC