Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
1005 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N102W 
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS LOCATED WHERE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE 
VORTICITY IS HIGH FROM TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY ACCUMULATION DURING 
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. 
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N92W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N102W TO 12N118W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
SUSTAINED FRESH SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE LOW NEAR 15N102W IS 
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL 
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION S OF 15N TO PRODUCE AN AREA 
OF 7-10 FT SEAS THROUGH THU FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 
118W. 

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS 30-33 KT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE N-NW SWELL WHICH 
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP S OF 30N BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 
CATALINA ISLAND TO 29N124W TO 30N130W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN  
CONTINUE N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THROUGH THU.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NE WATERS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW 
MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THU THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO 
BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN GULF WATERS N OF 25N.

$$
MUNDELL


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Oct-2014 09:15:35 UTC