Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE
STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 12.5N97W. WINDS THERE AREA
HOLDING STEADY EARLY TONIGHT AT 30-45 KT AND SEAS WITHIN THIS
ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST
DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO
AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE
EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR
BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT
NICARAGUAN AND COSTA RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 89W...WITH MAX
WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO SUGGESTED
BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT
IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N88W TO 04N107W TO 06N121W TO BEYOND
05N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF
120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE
NEAR 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO
PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH
TUE. 

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-11
FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF
110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF
THE AREA ALREADY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N
OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13
FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS
TUEAND FINALLY DISSIPATES ALONG ALONG 132W.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA
EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$
STRIPLING