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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
0405 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF T.S. ISELLE AT 01/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.2N 123.9W. 
ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 110N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 19N TO 10N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 
108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 09N86W TO 08N94W TO 12N118W TO 
13N128W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N137W 1009 MB TO 12N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 88W AND 
90W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 117W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 
126W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N140W TO 26N128W 
BEYOND THE CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N111W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N122W 17N126W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE 
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N117W TO 20N121W TO 15N125W BEYOND 15N140W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N137W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W. THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW 
CENTER TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BRINGING WITH 
IT WIND SPEEDS TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET 
WITHIN 300 NM TO 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N127W 24N128W 22N129W. THIS TROUGH 
IS THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS NOW. 
THE FORECAST IS FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE LATE 
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NOON ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS 
WILL SLOW DOWN AFTER NOON...AND THEN REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS AGAIN 
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


$$ 
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Aug-2014 02:41:59 UTC