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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 12N90W TO 10N105W TO 
10N110W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
126W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-95W...S OF TROUGH WITHIN 
60 NM OF LINE FROM 08N91W TO 08N96W TO 08N104W...AND ALSO WITHIN 
120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM THE SW U.S. AND FAR NW MEXICO SW 
25N121W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND 
STABLE AIR IS PRESENT N OF THE TROUGH...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE 
TROUGH. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF MOISTURE...EXCEPT 
FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN    
90W-104W WHERE CONVECTION PRESENT THERE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM 
OF LINE FROM 15N98W TO 17N101W...WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N87W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AND 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SAME GENERAL AREA 
OF WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCRIBED CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MORE TO THE SE OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEGIN TO FUNNEL THROUGH GULF 
ALLOWING FOR SEAS THERE TO BUILD TO AROUND 8-9 FT.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...THE MAIN ISSUE IS LARGE NW 
SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 10-12 FT N OF ABOUT 24N AND E OF 125W 
AND SEAS TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF A LINE FROM 23N112W TO 12N121W 
TO 07N140W. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE 
SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS 
ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO LOWER TO 9 FT TO THE N OF 03N BETWEEN 107W- 
119W...BETWEEN 119W AND 128W AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 128W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA BY EARLY FRI USHERING THE NEXT SET OF LARGE NW SWELLS. 
THIS SET OF SWELLS IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 10 FT NW OF A 
LINE FROM 32N129W TO 28N140W BEGINNING EARLY ON FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 16:05:47 UTC