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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH 
TO 20-25 KT CONDITIONS BY SUNSET TODAY...AND THEN PULSE TO 20-25 
KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. EXPECTING ONLY 15-20 KT FLOW 
ON SUN AFTERNOON...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-
25 KT AGAIN EARLY SUN NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING 
THE PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON MON...AND 
FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE BY MON EVENING. THIS 
SECOND GALE EVENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE TUE 
NIGHT INTO WED. BEST GUESS IS THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CEASE 
LATE THU MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY SWELLS 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER HAS CROSSED THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-110W WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.     

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W 
TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN 
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 08N100W TO 11N122W THEN TURNS WSW TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 08N100W TO 09N107W...WITHIN 90 NM OF 09.5N119W 
AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N122W TO 10N130W 
TO 09N133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30  
KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
MID MORNING TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT ENE 
NOCTURNAL PULSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT 
NE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH N SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC  
EVENT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAVE BEEN STALLING OVER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELL THAT MIXES WITH 
E SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND 
SHIFT AND SEAS 8-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 19 KT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON MON. THESE LARGE 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND ONLY EXPECT 4-
6 FT COMBINED SEAS TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA LATE WED. 

$$
NELSON



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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Nov-2014 09:51:48 UTC