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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

MAJOR CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 
130.9W OR ABOUT 1630 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 2100 UTC...MOVING 
W NW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 
940 MB. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A 
DISTINCT 15 NM WIDE EYE. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH JIMENA 
HAS BECOME VERY SYMMETRICAL AND BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE 15 NM 
WIDE EYE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN BANDS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...AND ALSO 
SSW OF JIMENA WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 04N140W TO 07N132W TO 
10N128W. JIMENA MAY STRENGTHEN JUST ENOUGH SOON TO REACH 
CATEGORY FIVE CATEGORY...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK REACHING NEAR 17N139W BY TUE AFTERNOON. JIMENA IS PRODUCING 
A LARGE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 290 NM N AND 
240 NM S OF THE CENTER WITH SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS 
AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO ABOUT 300 SE AND 
540 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER BY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS 

A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
11N109W...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND IN 
BANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11.5N111W TO 14N106W AND FROM 
14N105W TO 10N102W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE 
CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZING INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE PRES 
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED E OF THE LOW ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
MONSOONAL FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
CENTER WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE 
CENTER...WINDS ARE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 11N111W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO 
NEAR 12N114W BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE 
FOR A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THE 
LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS JIMENA PULLS FURTHER TO THE W AND 
AWAY FROM IT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...AND GRADUALLY CONTINUES NW TO 11N94W TO 
13N104W...THEN TURNS SW TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 10N114W TO 
12N119W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-
89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 97W-
102W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
A LINE 07N113W TO 08N118W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND THE 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 96W TO 103W AND OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA 
NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N136W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT 
IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE 
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S 
SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE THEN THESE CONDITIONS 
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON WED. THE GRADIENT 
E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE 
SUBTROPICS E OF 122W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH 
COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION. THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX ON MON INTO TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BY TUE 
EVENING.

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 22:02:14 UTC