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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162102
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2017 UTC Sat Dec 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 07N94W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N
between 95W and 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Latest scatterometer pass indicates winds
have diminished below gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less this evening.
Starting Sunday night, nocturnal winds will pulse to strong
through midweek.

Gulf of California: A cold front will enter the northern Gulf of
California tonight, then continue SE and dissipate over the 
central Gulf on Sun. Winds over the northern Gulf ahead of the
front have strengthened. The main issue tonight will be the 
likelihood of strong W to NW winds over the northern Gulf as the 
low pressure shifts eastward into the Sonora Desert. While the 
fetch across the northern Gulf will be too limited to develop 
large seas, mariners should be aware of the possibility of strong
gusty winds funneling through low lying areas of Baja California
Norte through early Sun. Winds will diminish through early next 
week after the front dissipates. 

Strong NW to N winds and seas building to 8 to 14 ft can be
expected off the coast of Baja California this evening. Seas 
will build to as high as 16 ft in NW swell by Sunday morning. 
Seas of 8 to 10 ft will cover most of the waters beyond 60 nm of 
the Baja coast through early next week in NW swell. Elsewhere 
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist along 
the coast of Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will strengthen across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight 
through Sunday night. Fresh N winds will funnel into the Gulf of 
Panama tonight. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail from 13N to 16N west of 133W, as 
well as the waters N of 28N, as depicted in the most recent 
scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere 
over the forecast waters north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 
120W. A fresh set of NW swell has propagated into the northern
waters. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 16 ft
tonight before starting to subside. 

$$
AL