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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 6N80W TO 08N84W TO 08N88W. ITCZ 
FROM 08N88W 06N98W TO 07N106W TO 07N125W BEYOND 05N140W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 115W AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N105.5W TO 12N106.5W TO 17N108W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 104W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 131W/132W THROUGH 32N TO 12N. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 27N110W TO 23N115W TO 23N127W. THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY SATURDAY. SHORT PERIOD 
NORTH SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL FROM 22N 
NORTHWARD WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 115W WESTWARD. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS TO 
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THAT IS 
TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE 
FORCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DURING THE NEXT 12 
HOURS OR SO. ASCAT PASSES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN SHOWING AT LEAST 
25 KNOT WINDS. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO FROM 12 HOURS TO 24 HOURS IN THE FORECAST WITH 8 TO 10 
FOOT SEAS...AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS MORE DOWNSTREAM. 

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...IN ORDER TO 
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS 
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 
THE NEXT STRONG PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF 
THE PEAK WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Dec-2014 03:59:02 UTC