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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260322
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ has developed across the discussion area this afternoon 
and evening, and extends from near 04N116w to 01N140W. Isolated 
moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm N of the axis 
between 116W and 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Afternoon ship observations and satellite derived wind data 
indicated moderate northwest to north winds occurring off the 
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and extending 
southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure 
gradient between a weakening 1022 mb high pressure centered near 
28N125W and lower pressure across interior Mexico continues to 
weaken slowly this evening, causing a very gradual decrease in 
winds across the region. Lingering northwest swell across the 
waters is producing seas of 4 to 7 ft and are expected to 
subside 1 to 2 ft through the remainder of the weekend.

Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the southern 
portions of the Gulf of California with seas 6-8 ft across the 
waters near Los Cabos this evening. Winds and seas over the Gulf 
will diminish tonight as weak high pressure builds over the 
region. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds are possible 
tonight into the northern Gulf of California, related to a weak 
frontal boundary moving across the southern U.S. Rockies. A 
brief pulse of fresh to strong northerly flow is possible 
tonight in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec with nocturnal 
drainage flow. Otherwise, the high pressure will maintain 
moderate winds and slight seas through early next week.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California 
and the northern Gulf of California Monday night into Tuesday, 
but the passage is expected to occur with little change in winds
and seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters 
of the eastern Tropical Pacific extending northeast into the 
western Caribbean. This is producing light to gentle breezes 
almost area wide this evening. Strengthening trade winds across 
the southwest Caribbean will support fresh to strong gap winds 
into the Gulf of Papagayo starting late Sunday night into early 
Monday, with nocturnal pulsing of the winds expected through the 
upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap 
winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong southerly winds are noted north of 28N within 90 nm east 
of a cold moving across the northwest corner of the discussion 
area, from 30N133W to beyond 24.5N140W. Morning altimeter data 
indicated seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell over much of the 
discussion area north of 22N and west of 131W. The winds ahead 
of the front will diminish tonight as the front drags eastward 
across the northern waters. Seas just ahead and behind the front 
remain 8 to 10 ft this evening, but will decrease in coverage 
from east to west overnight. By Sunday afternoon, the front will 
reach from 30N129W to 21N140W while weakening. While the ridge 
building behind the front will allow winds north of 20N to 
diminish, it will support fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west 
of 130W, which in turn will create combined seas to 8 ft as 
local wind waves mix with fading northwest swell Sunday into 
Monday. Otherwise, little change is expected through early in 
the upcoming week.

$$
Stripling


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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Feb-2017 03:22:21 UTC