000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from northern Colombia 
southwestward to the coast at 07N78W and continues to 06N81W to 
07N85W and to 07N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N104W to 07N116W to 06N127W
to 04N135W and to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is seen within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 
100W and 104W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 100W and 
106W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 120W-125W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 123W-128W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 
134W-139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed west of Baja California at 
26N128W. A ridge extends from the high center east-southeastward
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is generally
supporting gentle to locally moderate northerly winds and seas 
of 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo 
Islands, with the exception of slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft
between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro. Winds in the 
northern Gulf of Tehuantepec region have become north at moderate
to fresh speeds. Downstream from the Gulf, winds are light to 
gentle and primarily northeast to east in direction. Seas in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region have subsided slightly to 5 to 7 ft.

The earlier fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the 
northern Gulf of California have diminished to fresh speeds. Seas
with these winds are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle southeast to 
south winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere in the 
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and seas of at 4 to 6 
ft in west to northwest swell are offshore central Mexico, while 
light and variable winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in an east 
swell are offshore Oaxaca and Puerto Angel.

For the forecast, the fresh south to southwest winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds this 
afternoon. Looking ahead, strong high pressure building eastward
toward Baja California will cause gentle to moderate northerly 
winds west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands 
to increase to fresh speeds along with building seas beginning on
Thu afternoon, and likely change little through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region 
as seen in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas with
these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh north winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama reaching south to near 05N. Seas with these 
winds are 4 to 6 ft, with seas to 7 ft near 07N79.5W. Generally,
light and variable winds are elsewhere over the Central American
offshore waters, with the exception of gentle southeast winds 
over the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the Central American offshore 
waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
due to long-period south to southwest swell continue offshore 
Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh east winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong speeds during the 
late night and early morning hours tonight and again Thu night.
The moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama are expected
to change little through Thu night. Rough seas off Ecuador will 
gradually subside to moderate by Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure center of 1022 mb is located near 26N128W. This 
position is to the south of a weak low that is centered near
31N126W. More on this feature in paragraph below. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
from 09N to 15N between 111W and 141W and from north of the ITCZ 
to 27N between 111W and 140W as displayed in overnight ASCAT 
satellite data passes over those sections of the discussion area.
Seas associated to the trade winds are 4 to 7 ft, except for 
slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft west of about 134W and from 04N
to 17N. The combination of long-period northwest swell and 
shorter period trade wind generated waves over the western part 
of the area is sustaining the higher seas found there as noted in
the latest altimeter satellite data passes over that part of the
area. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds are ongoing along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Weak low pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 31N126W, with a 
trough extending southwestward to 28.5N127W and to near 27N129W.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are to the west and southwest of
the low to near 131W as captured by an overnight partial ASCAT 
satellite data pass. Seas with these winds are about 6 to 7 ft. 
Isolated showers are possible with about 90 nm east of the low.

For the forecast, the trade winds are forecast to increase to 
fresh to occasionally strong speeds by Thu as stronger high 
pressure builds east-southeastward over the northern and central 
waters. Seas with these winds are expected to build to between 7 
and 9 ft. The aforementioned weak low pressure is forecast to 
move in a general eastward motion through this morning, weakening
into a trough by this evening. Moderate to fresh north winds are
expected north of 28N and between 124W and 130W by that time 
along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft.

$$
Aguirre