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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N122W MOVING W-NW AT 10 
KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE 
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. AN 11 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS INDICATED A 
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THIS AREA. 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 10N ALONG 105W/106W DRIFTING W. THIS 
IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
14N105W...WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 116W/117W MOVING W 
10 TO 15 KT. THIS FEATURES SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS 
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE STRONG AND DRY NW SHEAR...SPEED 
CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW NOTED IN AN 11 UTC 
RAPIDSCAT PASS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 
12N117W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N79W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W TO 
05N100W. A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE ITCZ W OF 105W...AND THE 
ITCZ IS NOT CLEARLY EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W 
AND 88W...AND WITHIN 360 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLIER NEAR ISLA TORTUGA. THE GERMAN 
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE NEARBY REPORTED WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE 
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVER THE MID 
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ON THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS 
OF 4 TO 5 FT OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OPEN WATERS ELSEWHERE N 
OF 15N E OF 120W. A 16 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND 
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW 
PRES S OF THE AREA AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE 
NORTH. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE 
ANTICIPATED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR 
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP 
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE 
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER 
PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM 
DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
OUTSIDE OF THESE PLUMES...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH 
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N131W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. GENERALLY 
MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS WEAKENING AND NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W OF THE 
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA 
CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 
03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF 
BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED 
CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND 
ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Jul-2015 02:30:20 UTC