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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161022
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 27.4N 112.7W 992 MB 
AT 0900 UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE 
OVER THE NARROW LANDMASS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST 
COASTLINE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 25 NM 
OF CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. THE CENTER WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAY 
BRIEFLY STRADDLE THE EASTERN COASTLINE TODAY...THEN MOVE OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WED WHILE WEAKENING 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 
TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF 
SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL 
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF 
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR 
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO 
TROPICAL STORM POLO...THE 17TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS SEASON. 
TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W 1005 MB AT 0900 
UTC SEP 16 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. THE CENTER OF POLO IS PRESENTLY LOCATED 
ALONG THE NE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM NE OF THE CENTER WAS SHIFTING 
WWD ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFFSHORE 
WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR AND 
SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AHEAD CHURNED UP BY ODILE ARE EXPECTED 
LIMIT POLO TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO AS POLO 
MOVES CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST.

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR NEAR 23N109W 1007 MB 
MOVING N-NE 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW HAS 
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF 
ODILE...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A 
SURGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT WILL RACE 
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THROUGH THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE COAST OF SINALOA 
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS AND SEAS TODAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 12N90W TO T.D. POLO NEAR 11.9N 
98.4W 1005 MB...WHERE IT IS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 
16N109W TO 11N124W TO 12N132W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N138W 1011 MB 
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 08N E OF 91W TO THE 
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N128W AND EXTENDS 
A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N121W. 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM 
JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N139W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 30N138.5W THROUGH 29N140W TO NEAR MAUI. 
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT 
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF 
THE PERIOD WED EVENING.

THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS 
OF 18-20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA OVERNIGHT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS MOST 
OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS E OF 110W. THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE 
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTLINES TODAY AND 
WED. BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THIS SWELL HAS MERGED WITH THE AREA 
OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED 
SEAS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
BEHIND THE EXITING POLO THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS AND THE 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$ 
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 10:22:46 UTC