East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140234
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 01N82W TO 05N94W TO 
05N114W TO 01N128W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 01N128W TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM A PARENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TO 32N122W 
TO 20N140W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NW OLD 
MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM 20N120W SE TO 
BEYOND 00N102W. 

A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST THE SE OF THIS 
TROUGH REACHING FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 06N73W TO ACROSS THE 
SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W. 
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO 
THE N THROUGH NE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES ACROSS THE 
WATERS S OF 20N E OF 111W...AND COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE S OF THE EQUATOR 
THROUGH 00N135W TO 14N135W. LIMITED MOISTURE IS RIDING AROUND 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE WATERS S OF 05N W 
OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 
29N130W. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN "ZCDF4" NEAR 30N117W CONTINUES TO 
REPORT FRESH NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT 
IS TIGHT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT...RIDGING TO THE S AND A 
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS 
ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE 
FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING EXTENDS 
FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 31N142W THROUGH 
25N130W TO 23N114W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO IN PLACE 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ. AS A RESULT FRESH TRADES ARE PRESENT FROM 08N TO 24N W OF 
135W AND FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W...AS REPORTED BY 
RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE AREA OF FRESH 
TRADES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ENCOMPASSING 
THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 23N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W BY WED EVENING.

OTHERWISE...NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE 
FROM 23N110W TO 00N95W. THIS AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT SWELL WILL NOT 
VARY MUCH THROUGH WED EVENING AS REINFORCING PACKETS OF NW SWELL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE FROM THE WATERS N OF 32N. THE HIGHEST 
SEAS WILL BE N OF 23N.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT N TO 
NE WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$
LEWITSKY