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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION 
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. 
SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. 
NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER 
THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE 
COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT  OVER 
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS 
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 
FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY 
IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH 
NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO 
05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO 
08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W 
TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W. 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL 
LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$ 
SCHAUER/DGS



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jan-2015 22:05:01 UTC