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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WEAK 
PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE...BUT THIS IS ALSO 
INFLUENCED BY GAP WIND FLOW EMINATING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W/100W FROM 08N TO 15N. THERE IS SOME 
INDICATION OF THE WAVE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE BASED ON GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND ANIMATED 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 12 UTC 
SOUNDING FROM ACAPULCO TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. THERE MAY BE 
SOME INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REACHING 
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W TO 19N105W. CONVERGENT 
EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W/124W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE IS 
ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE 
SW SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS RELATED TO 
TRADE CONVERGENCE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE ITSELF...WITHIN THE DEEPER 
MOISTURE S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY POORLY DEPICTED IN 
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W/135W FROM 07N TO 14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP 
WEAKLY ON GOES DERIVED HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND IN VISIBLE 
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE. 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT 
TO TRADE WIND FLOW NW OF THE WAVE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 09N115W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN 
CONTINUES TO SPAN THE WESTERN STATES AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC 
AREAS TODAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N120W WITH A SHARP 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH REACHING TOWARD 19N105W. A FEW SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 
THESE FEATURES...BUT THIS IS DIMINISHING. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE 
REGION. SUCCESSIVE ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE MORNING INDICATED 
ONLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MOST AREAS. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THU IN THE PATTERN. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE 
WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 
THE GULF OF FONSECA. OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT 
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 11 FT. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP 
WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. CONVECTION 
ADJACENT TO A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 89W AND 100W IS 
RELATED IN PART TO AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE 
FAIRLY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS NOTED 
IN TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE WINDS AND 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND LESS THAN 8 
FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. ALTIMETER DATA IS INDICATING GENERALLY 4 TO 
5 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF AREA OF GAP WIND INFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING 
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE DEEP 
TROPICS...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W...WHERE 
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 133W. DESPITE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN 
THE TROPICS SOUTH OF 15N...CONVECTION IS MODEST DUE SUBSIDENT 
FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N120W. NO 
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT THE SURFACE. 
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W BY THIS 
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RELATED TO A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LOW N OF THE 
AREA TO A POSITION FARTHER WEST THROUGH FRI.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Jun-2015 22:16:31 UTC