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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231004
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Frank was centered at 18.5N 109.8W at 0900 UTC, or
about 360 nm west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Frank is moving
west-northwest, or 300 degrees at 7 kt. The maximum sustained
winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Deep convection continues near the center,
where numerous strong was occurring within 120 nm SW of the
center. Frank is expected to continue moving northwest and reach
hurricane strength later today or Sunday. Large S to
SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican coastlines from the
Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California Sur during the next
couple of days and generate rough and dangerous surf. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Georgette was centered at 13.5N 120.3W at 0900
UTC, or about 940 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 290
degrees at 11 kt. The maximum sustained winds remain at 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt, and estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Convection has changed little in intensity near the center of
Georgette in recent hours, with numerous strong present within 180
nm S of the center. Georgette is forecast to intensify into a
hurricane later today as it continues WNW over the open tropical
waters. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 23N 137W at 0900
UTC. The estimated pressure was 1010 mb. Shallow convection
continues across much of the northern semicircle within 240 nm of
the center, but all significant deeper convection has dissipated.
As Estelle continues moving WNW over the next few days, and over
cooler waters, the system will weaken further. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish through the weekend as Estelle continues to
weaken.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these three systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave has passed from the western Caribbean into
southeastern Mexico. It extends northward from 12N92W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection associated with the wave is
present mainly near the Mexican coast from 12N to 16N between 89W
and 98W. Another tropical wave is heading westward from the
western Caribbean near 81W toward Nicaragua and Honduras. This
wave will shift west across Central America during the next 24-36
hours and continue to spawn active convection ahead of it.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N93W to 09N102W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 09N between 94W and 101W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Frank is forecast to intensify to hurricane strength later today
or Sunday after it moves over or very near Socorro Island around
midday today. Frank will generate seas of 7 to 9 ft southeast
swell that will reach the southern entrances of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes beginning
early Saturday morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific
offshore waters off Baja California Sur through early next week
outside of the main storm environment of Frank, as it continues
moving northwest into the open Pacific waters. This will create
rough and hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters,
and dangerous conditions in the surf zone across these area. Large
waves and very strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines
this weekend.

A surface ridge extends from near 32N129W to just north of
Georgette, near 16N125W. Moderate southerly flow will persist
across the Gulf of California between the ridge and resident
troughing meandering across the peninsula. These southerly winds
may increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern portions of the
Gulf of California by late Saturday as high pressure builds to the
northwest. The building high pressure will also support strong
northerly winds offshore of California tonight through Sunday,
allowing northerly swell to raise seas to 8 ft or higher to
penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9 ft will
develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Sunday
into early next week in mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther west, Georgette is moving to the W of the area. The
associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater shifting west of
120W through late Saturday.

West of 120W:

The remnant low of Estelle continues to weaken the subtropical
ridge. This has resulted in a light wind flow persisting over the
deep tropics. Stronger winds continue between Estelle and the high
to the N, but the winds will diminish as Estelle weakens as it
moves westward. As mentioned above, fresh northerly wind and short
period swell of 7 to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between
119W and 130W Sunday until early next week.

$$
CAM