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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over
southern and eastern Mexico is maintaining a tight pressure
gradient over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This gradient is
expected to support sustained winds to around 40 kt tonight,
then the gradient will slacken Sunday as high pressure over the
western Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. Max seas
will be 15-16 ft today, then subside below 8 ft Monday. North
winds will pulse to near 25 kt overnight Monday and Tuesday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 07N89W to 06N98W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N98W to 09N109W to 09N125W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
either side of a line from 10N112W to 13N119W to 07N131W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed along the eastern coast of the Gulf
of California from 23N106W to 31N113W. High pressure centered
near 28N128W extends a ridge eastward to Baja California along
27N, and ridging dominates the offshore waters. Aside from the
Tehuantepec high wind event, light to gentle winds will prevail
S of 17N through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NW
winds north of 28N along the west coast of Baja California will
continue through Sunday night, then diminish Monday as the ridge
weakens in response to low pressure approaching from the NW.
Between 17N and Mazatlan moderate to fresh northwest winds will
prevail through Tuesday night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds east of 92W
will continue to pulse mainly during the overnight hours this
weekend. Max seas during this event will be 8-9 ft. An easterly
wave over the western Caribbean will cross Central America early
Monday. Some model guidance calls for low pressure development
along the wave axis as it moves westward away from Costa Rica on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Model guidance consensus and climatology
both suggest this system will remain a trough or weak low during
this time frame.

Light to gentle north to northeast winds and combined seas of 3
to 5 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough, which is
expected to meander between 08N and 10N through Wednesday. Light
to moderate southwest winds are observed from 05N to 09N, with
combined seas hovering between 3 and 5 ft in southwest swell.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected south of 05N through
Wednesday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure centered near 28N128W ridges southeast to near
19N109W. Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected
northeast of the ridge axis this weekend and moderate to fresh
trades will prevail south of the ridge axis, north of the ITCZ.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds and combined seas of 8-9
ft will prevail from 07N to 15N W of 125W through Monday. Low
pressure encroaching on the far northwest waters will weaken the
ridge and maintain a relatively light wind regime in this area
Tuesday through Friday.

$$
Mundell