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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N93W to 11N108W to
low pres near 09N121W to 07N134W. The ITCZ extends from 07N134W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 87W
and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 150 nm N of the monsoon trough between 120W and 134W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail over the far
northern Gulf of california while variable light to gentle winds
are prevail across the southern Gulf of California. The weak low
pressure will dissipate this morning with winds diminishing. A
new weak low will develop late tonight and dissipate once again
Wednesday morning. Southwest to south winds across the
southeastern half of the low are expected to increase to 20 kt
again tonight, with seas building 4-5 ft.  

High pressure of 1029 MB centered NW of the area near 44N142W
extends a ridge SE into the forecast area near 30N133W to
16N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure across Baja California is producing moderate to fresh
north-northwest winds across the near and offshore waters of the
Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade
winds generally south of 20N and west of 120W. Several weak and
transient areas of low pressure are currently present along the
monsoon trough, and forecast to continue along the monsoon
trough through the week. Trade winds near these low centers may
occasionally increase to locally strong across the northern
portion of the lows, especially as convection flares up. Seas
across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-7 ft range
through Thursday.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Light to moderate winds are expected to continue across the
forecast area south of the monsoon trough through the week, with
light and variable winds north of the trough. Combined seas of 3
to 5 feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, and then will
build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as new cross-
equatorial southwesterly swell arrives. Active convection is
expected to continue about the monsoon trough through mid week. 

$$
AL