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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251546
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1540 UTC Tue Jul 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
Hurricane Hilary is centered near 15.3N 107.8W at 25/1500 UTC or
about 470 nm SSE of the southern tip of Baja California moving 
WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. 
Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 13N to 19N between 105W and 111W. See latest NHC forecast/ 
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 for more 
details.

Hurricane Irwin is centered near 15.6N 119.4W at 25/1500 UTC or 
about 695 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California moving W 
at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to 
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N to
18N between 118W and 122W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 for more details.

Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 15.4N 136.8W at 25/1500 UTC
or about 1100 nm E of South Point Hawaii moving WNW at 9 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 15N to 17N between 135W and 139W. See latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 97W N of 07N moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 92W and
99W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 10N86W to 11N99W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to
08N E of 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula 
are expected to continue through Wednesday, as high pressure 
remains centered N-NW of the area. Seas will remain generally 4 
to 6 ft in mixed swell through Wednesday. Thereafter...Hurricane
Hilary will begin impacting the zones offshore of Baja California
through Friday with increased winds and through Saturday night 
with large southerly swell to 10 ft. Gentle southerly flow will 
prevail in the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow 
across the northern Gulf of California.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Thursday night into Friday morning. Hilary 
is expected to impact the offshore waters beyond 200 nm off the 
coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through today,
then pass S of the Revillagigedo Islands Wednesday. Seas of at 
least 8 ft associated with Hilary are forecast to reach the 
waters between 103W and 106W in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes 
on Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with 
the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through the week, 
occasionally building max seas to 7 ft in a mix of E wind waves 
and long period SW swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the forecast
zones the next several days. Long period cross-equatorial SW 
swell generating 5-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the
forecast waters through mid week. Another set of cross- 
equatorial long period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft will reach the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thursday, and 
the coast of Central America on Thursday night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 
High pressure is located N of the area with a ridge axis that 
extends across the forecast waters north of 22N. The pressure 
gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical 
cyclones between 13N and 19N will maintain fresh N to NE winds W
of 130W through mid-week. By Thursday, cross equatorial SW swell
of 8 to 9 ft will spread across the waters south of 10N and east
of 110W, persisting into the weekend. 

$$
HUFFMAN