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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 21/2100 UTC is near 18.3N 
131.6W, moving NW or 305 degrees 8 knots. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 
105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Numerous strong convection is 
within 45 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection elsewhere from 17N to 20N between 129W and 132W. 
Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily and become a tropical 
storm early on Wednesday. Please refer to the National Hurricane 
Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 
KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS 
headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 97W from 18N southward to 10N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 145 nm either side of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low near 
10N89W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 10N113W to 
07N124W, resuming near 14N132W beyond 12N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 170 nm S of axis between 88W and 
127W, within 200 nm N of axis between 95W and 103W and between 
117W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 
11N to 15N between 129W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail along the eastern side of the Baja 
California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of 
the week with a weak surface low developing at times along the 
trough to the north of 29N. The pressure gradient between this 
elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging W of the area 
will allow for moderate NW winds off Baja California through 
early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas will 
range between 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through early Wed 
with seas to 7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 37N138W. A ridge extends 
to the southeast, through 22N118W. N swell generated by strong 
northerly winds N of the area is building seas of 8-9 ft north 
of 29N between 127W and 132W through early Tuesday, then 
conditions will merge with Hurricane Kenneth. Moderate to 
locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 120W. 

$$
NR

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Page last modified: Monday, 21-Aug-2017 22:05:51 UTC