000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07.5N78W to 08N87W to 
06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 08N129W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 08N between 85W and 93W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection remains active from 04N to 09.5N between 119W 
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds continue along the coast and
offshore waters of Baja California today. NW swell moving through
the regional waters is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft, with peak
seas measured by recent satellite altimeter around 10 ft just W 
of Socorro Island. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail 
across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California, 
where seas have built to 3 to 6 ft. This wind pattern continues 
between the subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific along 
about 130W, and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 7 
to 8 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters between Manzanillo
and Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas of
5 to 6 ft are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja 
California will diminish tonight through Wed. The current NW 
swell moving through the regional waters has peaked and will
gradually subside from N to S through Thu, falling below 8 ft  
late Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere through Wed. Wind and seas will diminish 
further Thu through Sat as high pressure weakens west of the 
area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region 
and Nicaragua waters, extending well offshore and becoming fresh
between 89W and 92W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds 
continue in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to 04N. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas of 3 to 6 ft in SW swell
are noted elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft seas to the northwest 
through southeast of the Galapagos Islands, as measured by recent
satellite altimeter.

For the forecast, easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region will
diminish to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Wed, then
diminish to moderate on Thu. Moderate N to NE winds over the 
Gulf of Panama will become moderate to fresh again tonight. 
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will persist through late Wed.
Winds will diminish further Thu through Sat as a weak pressure 
gradient develops across the local region and the western 
Caribbean. Another pulse of moderate SW swell late Thu through
Sat will maintain seas in the 4 to 6 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,
covering the waters west of 110W. The associated pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds north of 08N and west of 110W. Fresh winds,
rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active 
near and to the north of a 1011 mb surface low  along the ITCZ 
near 07.5N129W, supported by a mid to upper trough to its 
northwest. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft continues to move through the 
regional waters, and is the dominant swell as far south as 10N, 
mainly west of 120W. Southern hemispheric S to SW swell is mixing
with the northerly swell and with the trade wind flow between 07N
and 17N to the W of 120W.

The northerly and southerly swell groups will continue to merge 
along with shorter period easterly wind waves attributed to the 
moderate to fresh trade winds, to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft 
confused seas from 08N to 18N west of 118W tonight. Farther 
east, the plume of E winds and associated seas from the gap wind 
events will diminish, but lingering seas will interact with SE 
swell of 7 to 8 ft south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These 
combined seas will subside through late Wed, leaving only an 
area of 8 to 9 ft seas in the trade wind belt from 06N to 14N 
west of 130W by late week.

$$
Stripling