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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1033 MB
HIGH SHIFTING SE INTO W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE
THROUGH TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT TUE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF
WIND WILL BUILD TO 20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40
KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING
GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING
FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH
FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE
DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT
AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 25 TO 35
KT...WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE DURING PEAK EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS AND DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
EXTEND OFFSHORE 150-180 NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N
BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 03N114W TO 05N126W TO 05N138W
TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 105W...AND
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 138W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS
THE FAR N PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MAX SEAS ARE 6-
8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20
KT EARLY WED AND 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.  

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N
GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W-125W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THEAREAHAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 134W...WHERE
NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8-13 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN IN FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS
TO 10-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$
STRIPLING