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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 12N92W TO DRIVE 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE 
FLOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 1608 UTC SHOWED THE BROAD 
CYCLONIC CENTER JUST NEAR 12N92W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
JUST EAST OF THE PLUME OF GAP WINDS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
GAP WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD 
HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR 
IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N93W 1007 MB TO 08N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1010 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N118W 1010 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS 
E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED 23N115W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE 
FRONT REACHES FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS 
FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED GALE FORCE NW WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS LIFTING TO 
THE NE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT 
TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N125W TO 23N140W BY 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. AN 
ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATED SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 17 FT NEAR 35N145W. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 13 FT ENTERING THE 
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 ARE EXPECTED 
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE NOTED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADES TO THE 
NORTH AND MODERATE SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N110W.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS 
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
THE GALAPAGOS AND THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE 
HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 
MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION 
TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 22:04:49 UTC