| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220252
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 136.5W AT 22/0300 UTC 
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM IN THE NE AND 120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS 
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A DRIFT TOWARD THE E IS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE ENE THEN NE AND AN INCREASE 
IN FORWARD SPEED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR     
20.9N 122.8W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 5 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 180 AND 360 NM IN THE 
NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE 
LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 
22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM IN THE NW AND 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLES. PREVIOUSLY AN 
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WAS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NE OF THE 
NEWLY FORMED T.D. NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THOSE WINDS 
HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT AND THUS THE GALE WARNING HAS 
BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE T.D. IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A 
TROPICAL STORM EARLY FRI AND THEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS 
WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 10N93W THEN    
RESUMES FROM 10N100W TO 07N107W TO 09N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS 
PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 03N BETWEEN 81W 
AND 83W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W 
AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS  
NEAR 40N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 30N117W. THE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF    
110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH 
SAT AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW 
PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF 
THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 02:53:02 UTC