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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022100
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE SEP 2 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 18.5N 106.5W AT 2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 325 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING N 
AT 8 KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED 
WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 390 
NM S SEMICIRCLES. TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 
23N TO 25N. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT 
EXTEND AROUND 210 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH 
OF 20-33 KT SW WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER 
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO 
13N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N137W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 04N E OF 88W AND 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF THE AXIS TO 10N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY 
STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM 
NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN 
FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR 
NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN 
ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION. 

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE 
REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
10N135W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S 
OF 03N BETWEEN 110W AND 133W TODAY. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH 
NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 08N IN 
CENTRAL WATERS BY MIDDAY WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY 
THU.

$$
SCHAUER/COBB/MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 21:01:11 UTC