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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 1400 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N87W TO 02N84W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-
08.5N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 13.5N97.5W TO 02N98W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF 07N BETWEEN 95W- 
110W AND FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 97W-104W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N BY WED MORNING. FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N 
UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N132W 1009 
MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
DISPLACED BETWEEN 90 NM AND 420 NM E QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES 
SYSTEM NEAR 13N132W BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. THE RAPIDSCAT 
PASS FROM 0624 UTC SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE NE 
QUADRANT. ALTIMETER PASSES CONFIRM A SIZABLE AREA OF SEAS IN THE 
8-10 FT RANGE IN THE AREA OF THE LOW FROM 10N-21N W OF 132W AND 
FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 125W-132W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH WINDS LIKELY DIPPING BELOW A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON TUE.

...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N129W AND 25N122W TO THE ISLAS 
REVILLAGIGEDO AND ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 
32N130W AND 26N132W TO 22N139W. THESE RIDGE AXES ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 30N138W 
TO 24N140W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUE AS IT BUTTS UP 
AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS. THE 0802 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS 
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 
SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N117W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR IT IN THE AREA S OF 07N BETWEEN 95W-110W 
AND FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 97W-104W. 30-40 KT EASTERLY SHEAR LIES 
OVER THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS 
NEAR THE LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SEE LITTLE 
CHANGE IN ITS POSITION OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT 
CONTINUES TO BATTLE EASTERLY SHEAR. 

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE 
CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4 
FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OR COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS 
WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL 
WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE 
USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHING TO THE SW ENHANCED BY THE 
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 84W-87W HAS GENERATED 20-25 
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 1200 
UTC WINDSAT PASS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 9 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL SLACKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN LONG-PERIOD 
SW SWELL. BY TUE NIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE 
OF DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$ 
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-May-2015 15:29:09 UTC