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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300923
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N102W to 07N124W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 91W 
and 102W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwest winds will continue west of the Baja 
Peninsula through Thursday from the pressure gradient between 
high pressure to the west and surface troughs in Baja California 
and mainland Mexico. Expect stronger NW winds off the coast of 
southern California, resulting in combined seas of 7 to 9 ft in 
NW swell north of 29N between 120W and 126W by this afternoon, 
spreading southward to near 28N Wednesday afternoon.

Mainly light to gentle southeast to south winds are expected 
over the Gulf of California today, then increase to gentle to 
moderate winds tonight and Wednesday. Seas will be 1 to 2 ft, 
except 3 to 4 ft over the entrance to the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere, a broad low centered near 13N100W will slowly drift 
northward through Wednesday in a moist environment. Expect 
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms to persist along and 
just offshore the coast of southeastern Mexico the next few 
days. Heavy rain and localized flooding may be possible over the 
coastal sections of Mexico this week. Gradual development of the 
low is possible as well during the next 3-5 days. Otherwise, 
mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft will prevail 
over the Mexican offshore waters south of Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moist southerly flow associated with the monsoon trough will 
continue to support for scattered showers and thunderstorms 
mainly north of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong 
gusty winds and rough seas. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
north of the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly moderate 
south to southwest winds are expected south of the trough axis 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the area north of 16N and west of 117W. The 
associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to the 
south in the deep tropics is supporting fresh northeast trades 
from 07N to 15N west of 133W, with seas of 7 to 8 ft in mixed NE 
and SE swell. This area will gradually shrink through Wednesday 
as the ridge retreats westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds 
will continue over the remainder of the northwestern waters 
through Wednesday with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh northwest winds are 
forecast to develop north of 27N and east of 125W tonight as the 
pressure gradient between low pressure deepening inland over the 
SW United States and high pressure over the northwest and 
north/central waters tightens. These winds will support 7 to 9 
ft seas over that area through Wednesday night.

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-May-2017 09:23:29 UTC