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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280259
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION 
EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN IN THE 11-17 FT 
RANGE UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS 
RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 04N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 114W AND 124W. 
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA ARE ALSO 
HELPING TO KEEP SEAS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU 
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE 
STRENGTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 10N. NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND PULSE BACK TO GALE 
FORCE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN 
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. NE SWELL 
FROM PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE SWELL FROM THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N78W TO 05N85W TO 
04N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N97W TO 04N105W TO 
09N138W TO 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SLOW MOVING...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 
32N128W TO 10N120W WITH A 100 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 20N133W 
TO 16N136W. INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES E OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W...WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT E...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THU.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PANAMA...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WILL SEND A SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE 
EXPECTED WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 04N OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
OFFSHORE OF THE SE TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
BEGINNING WED MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN 
THE MORNING HOURS WHEN THEY ARE ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF 
THE LAND. 

$$ 
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jan-2015 02:59:51 UTC