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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU APR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 03N110W TO 04N120W TO 
05N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 37N143W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO 
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20-25 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W-130W AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NE-E WINDS N OF 21N W OF 130W. AN ALTIMETER PASS AND FEW SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN THIS AREA. THE HIGH 
PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS 
WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS MAINLY N 
OF 20N W OF 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW SWELL WILL 
COMBINE WITH NE WIND WAVES TO BUILD SEAS TO 9 WEST OF LINE FROM 
30N116W TO 25N116W TO 20N130W TO 16N140W BY THU EVENING. 
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT.

MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION 
E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR GAP WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOWNWIND FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A NEW BATCH OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELL IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS AND COULD REACH THE 
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...SOUTH OF LOS CABOS...LATE 
TODAY...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER COLOMBIA AND ENTERS THE EPAC NEAR  
03N77W TO 00N84W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ON THE 0600 UTC MAP FROM 12N118W TO 07N121W. A CLUSTER 
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT 
BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-7 FT 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. A STRONGER GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THIS GULF ON SUN...WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTENDING SW 
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 92W BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS WILL BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE 
ISTHMUS THE TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI 
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT REACHING 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. 

$$ 
GR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Apr-2015 09:24:05 UTC