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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHERE WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 35-40 KT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO 
SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-16 FT IN 
THE GULF AS THESE WIND CONDITIONS PERSIST. SEAS WILL ONLY 
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
HOURS WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS GALE WIND EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO BE OF LONG DURATION...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W-91W. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS 
AROUND 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 03N82W TO 05N90W TO 
05N95W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 07N128W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 02N85W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST 
AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS MOVED JUST N OF AREA 
AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
THE LOW TO ESE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. TO 
THE W OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...A NARROW RIDGE IS ALONG 130W 
N OF 21N...AND IS SLIDING EASTWARD. A RATHER NARROW LONGWAVE 
WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 136W 
AND N 13N. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT E OF ABOUT 100W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD TO SE MEXICO...AND 
TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N138W 
TO 23N140W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A 
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED N 
OF AREA DISSIPATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N115W TO 
20N116W. A SMALL AREA OF E TO SE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IS 
NOTED FROM 24N TO 26N E OF TROUGH TO 113W WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 
FT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND 
DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON TUE 
AND DISSIPATE BY WED.  

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD TO THE W OF A LINE 
FROM FROM 30N120W TO 15N130W TO 05N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE 
RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-
17 SECONDS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SEEPING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA REACH 
S TO NEAR 05N AND BETWEEN 79W-81W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH WED WITH SEAS THERE TO 8 OR 9 FT.

$$ 
GR



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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Jan-2015 22:02:56 UTC