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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO 06N87W TO 04N92W. ITCZ FROM 04N92W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

1032 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING S-SE 
EXTENDS FROM THE SONORA COAST OF NW MEXICO NEAR 28N111W ACROSS 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 24N126W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT. SHORT PERIOD N SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 25N WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING 8-13 FT.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC 
W OF 120W. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES 
NNE OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH 
GALE FORCE LATE SAT AND EARLY SUN NEAR 30N140W. 

DIVERGENCE ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. 
LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE ENHANCING GAP WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS THU NIGHT INDICATED WINDS 
TO 30 KT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE A PLUME OF 8-11 FT SEAS 
THIS MORNING... WITH 8-9 FT SWELL REACHING TO 101W SAT. A WEAKER 
DIURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E BEHIND A DISSIPATING 
COLD FRONT SAT TO STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER NW MEXICO... 
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN NORTHERN 
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS 
STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO INDICATE 
STRONG WINDS ARE NO LONGER FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. NORMAL MODERATE TO 
FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW PERSISTS. AN AREA OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY 
GALE FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY IS LOCATED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 
98W AND 104W. LOOKING AHEAD...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
NEXT STRONG PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
BE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY 
WHETHER PEAK WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.

$$
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 15:21:39 UTC