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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A 1030 MB HIGH EXTENDS A
RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
CONTINUES TO GENERATE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STORM FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-45 KT GENERALLY
COVERING AN AREA N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. GIVEN THE STRONG
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW BETWEEN
THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH SEAS JUST DOWNWIND BUILDING IN
EXCESS OF 20 FT DURING THIS TIME. THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 07/1800 UTC...THEN MAINTAIN REMAIN 30-40 KT
SEVERAL MORE DAYS INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST STORM CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MON NIGHT. THIS
ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL
EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE CURRENT GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH
AND CONFUSED SEAS EXTENDING W-SW TO BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ARE SPILLING THROUGH GAPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS BAYS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS...FROM THE
GULF OF PANAMA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE PLUME OF 20-
30 KT NE WINDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT
COASTAL AREAS TO NEAR 07.5N95W...WHERE SEAS OF 8-10 FT PREVAIL.
A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BY 07/1200 UTC ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASE THE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO 35 KT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE
BACK TO GALE FORCE...TO NEAR 40 KT...ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
GULF OF NICOYA TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND
EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 90W-110W THROUGH
MONDAY. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N90W TO 04N94W TO 03N98W TO 05N116W TO
03N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 05N
BETWEEN 91W AND 98W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N118W TO 04N140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W...FROM A 1029
MB HIGH NEAR 37N127W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N140W...AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA....WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 30 KT.
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE GULF DURING
THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE LOCALIZED AREAS
OF STRONGER WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS
ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF
THE ITCZ NEAR 05N TO 15N W OF 129W. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE
SUPPORTING 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT
GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W
MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
NW PART OF THE AREA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
LIKELY N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-
13 FT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR NW PORTION MON.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF
PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8-11 FT NEAR 06N81W BY MON AFTERNOON. AREA OF WINDS
25 TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME.

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Sunday, 07-Feb-2016 09:32:34 UTC