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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161521
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Mon Jan 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 06N78W to low pressure near 02N82W 1008 MB
to 03N91W to 02N100W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N100W to 
08N130W, resuming at 08N135W and continuing to beyond 08N140W. 
No signficant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure area centered near
30N135W to the south of the Baja California peninsula. Recent ship
observations indicated that this is supporting fresh to strong 
northerly winds off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, but in an 
fairly localized area less than 60 nm by 60 nm. These winds will
diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon as the ridge weakens
slightly.

Fresh gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be 
diminishing later today and become generally light and variable 
through mid week. These winds will turn more southerly later in
the week and increasingly slightly.

Light breezes over the Gulf of California will increase Tuesday
as high pressure builds over the southern Rockies of the U.S. but
diminish thereafter. 

Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere through mid week with 5
to 7 ft off Baja California and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open
waters off Mexico. Looking ahead, global models have been fairly
consistent showing a weak cold front moving into the waters off 
Baja California Norte by Thursday then become diffuse ahead of a
stronger cold front moving across Baja California and the Gulf of
California Friday and Saturday. The second front will be
accompanied by fresh to strong winds and seas of 12 to 13 ft off
Baja California.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong trade winds over the southwest 
Caribbean along with local drainage effects are allowing fresh to
strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo and as far north
to off the coast of Nicaragua near Puerto Sandino. These winds 
will diminish this afternoon. Model guidance indicates that 
these winds will pulse one more time to the strong category late 
tonight before diminishing to the fresh category Tuesday 
afternoon and remain at that strength into Wednesday. Present 
seas of 6-7 ft will subside to 5-6 ft this afternoon, and change 
little through Wednesday.the evening hours, and stay just below 8
ft through mid week.

A persistent weak low off Colombia has drifted more to the south
and will likely dissipate tonight. While no significant
convection is noted currently, a surface trough will persist in
this area over the next couple of days and may serve as the
focuse of occasional showers and thunderstorms. 

Elsewhere light to gentle northeast to east winds will persist 
north of about 07N, and light to gentle south to southeast winds 
south of 07N. Seas are around the 3-4 ft range...except slightly 
higher seas north of 07N with little change expected through mid
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper trough is supporting
at least one surface trough in the deep tropics along the ITCZ,
between 130W and 135W. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
diminished considerably over the past 24 hours along the ITCZ,
but clusters of moderate convection are likely to be active north
of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 125W through mid week. The
gradient between the surface trough and a 1028 mb high pressure
area centered near 30N135W is supporting an area of fresh to
strong trade winds from 11N to 15N between 125W and 135W. Various
altimeter data along with reports from Buoy 43010 near 09N125W
indicate at least 8 to 11 or 12 ft north of 07N and west of 
120W. This inlcudes an added component of northwest swell, with 
highest seas in the area of strong trade winds. The swell decays
below 8 ft from north to south through mid week north of 20N,
while seas related to the trade wind flow persist from 07N to
20N. 

Looking ahead, the areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade 
winds and their related seas decreases after mid week as the high
pressure north of the area weakens ahead of an advancing cold 
front. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the front as 
it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N Wednesday and 
Thursday, followed by a second front moving south of 30N to the 
east of 130W by Thursday and Friday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Jan-2017 15:21:11 UTC