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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 116W/117W FROM 10N-17N. THERE IS 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 
119W WHERE THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE INTERACTING. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS ALONG 96/97W FROM 10N INTO THE GULF 
COAST STATES OF SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST ITS INTERACTION WITH A PRE EXISTING PERTURBATION WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH MAY HELP FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 08.5N84W TO 15.5N105W TO 
10N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 
08N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W...AND 
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 99W AND 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N139.5W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS 
VERY BROAD...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS N 
AND NW PORTIONS. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 
FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 
FROM 120W TO 103W WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. THE STRONG 
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO NEAR 11 FT BY WED MORNING. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL 
FLOW WILL ALSO TRANSPORT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE 
COASTAL STATES OF MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL 
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 02N BETWEEN 118W AND 132W TUE MORNING...AND 
S OF 07N BETWEEN 106W AND 134W BY WED MORNING. 

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Sep-2014 21:57:20 UTC